MyDD :: Choose Your Own Adventure, Er, Vote Total

Choose Your Own Adventure, Er, Vote Total

by fbihop, Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 01:31:50 AM EST

Does anyone else remember those Choose Your Own Adventure books? The ones where you got to make choices and decide what the main character was going to do next (or to "choose your own adventure"). My favorite was one that had something to do with a bicycle and a cone-shaped machine that eliminated air resistance.

As a kid, I loved those books. Thanks to those books and countless Hardy Boys, Tom Swift and Redwall books, I grew to love reading books and still do. I'll read a couple of books a week if given the chance.

But now over at FiveThirtyEight.com, one of my daily must-reads, Nate (or as I like to call him, the Analyst Formerly Known as Poblano) has something suited for all of us -- a choose your own vote total counter.

Here's how it works:

There are seven categories.

Count Florida?

Count Michigan?

Count Michigan uncommitteds?

Count Puerto Rico and other territories?

Count Texas Caucuses?

Count advisory primaries? (WA, NE, ID)

Use caucus vote estimates? (IA, NV, WA, ME)

You can check your option in each category to see how you think votes should be tabulated. And there are many, many different ways to do this; 972 according to the AFKAP. That's nearly a thousand ways to reapportion the tens of millions of votes counted.

You can look at it as either a devastating way to prove your point or a great way to start fights between Clinton or Obama supporters. Or perhaps both. Either way... it's there.

I decided to pump in a few and see what came out.

First, a Clinton-favored one.

Count Florida 100%. Count Michigan 100% without assigning any uncommitted voters. Count Puerto Rico and other territories. Don't count Texas caucus results. Count the advisory primaries. Only use caucuses with hard vote counts.

The result is Clinton 18,068,978 to Obama 17,810,495. Or Hillary by 257,863 votes. Or Hillary with 50.3 percent of the votes between the two (Edwards, etc. aren't in the spreadsheet).

However with one tweak, giving Obama the uncommitted votes in Michigan, it keeps Clinton's vote total the same, but pushes Obama up to 18,048,663; less than 20,000 votes between himself and Clinton, and Clinton has a 50.0273 percent amount of the vote between the two. Hardly a mandate.

Let's go to one that favors Obama: counting all voters every contest in areas where voters who will elect someone in November reside.

Yes Florida, Yes Michigan. Uncommitteds to Obama. No to territories. Yes to Texas caucus. Yes to advisory primaries. Yes to caucus estimates.

Total? Obama 18,632,514 to Clinton 18,332,629. Or 50.4 percent to Obama.

Throw out the Texas caucus, Obama still wins by ~207,000. Throw out Texas caucus, but count Puerto Rico; Obama's lead drops to 74,000.

So what's your favorite combination?

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Democratic Primary (all tags)

Permalink :: 6 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure, Er, Vote Total (none / 0)

I loved Choose Your Own Adventure books, they were the best! This is just as fun! Yay!

Hooray for John McCain!

by ragekage on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 01:33:19 AM EST

i loved those books! (2.00 / 1)

not crazy about your diary though.... there's been 10 of these tonight - sorry....

"Me Fail English? That's Unpossible." Ralph Wiggum

by canadian gal on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 01:34:30 AM EST

Re: i loved those books! (2.00 / 1)

I didn't see any pointing out this cool little tool that fivethirtyeight.com has up. can you point me to it, so I can go ahead and delete this one and just post a comment over there?

New Mexico politics from the local perspective.

by fbihop on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 01:37:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

oh sorry. (none / 0)

i apologize - not the counter - but the popular vote flame wars.

"Me Fail English? That's Unpossible." Ralph Wiggum

by canadian gal on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 01:38:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Meh (none / 0)

Flame wars on it are inevitable, with Clinton making her case using them and with no real official tally, anyone can come up with any number...which the counter does a good job showing.

I think making that known might be the best way to stop the flame wars, honestly.

by libertyleft on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 02:10:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Choose Your Own Adventure, Er, Vote Total (none / 0)

Does it really matter? It can be argued either way and it doesn't matter who won or lost. They finished under 1% apart out of 35 million votes.

Hillary supporters will argue that it's not so much the votes but the states they come from (OH, PA, WV, AK,etc.) Obama supporters will argue that if the popular vote was the "decider," he would have spent more time in California and other populous states and not set foot in Kansas, Idaho etc,

I see merit in both of these positions. Had popular vote totals been the defining metric both candidates would have campaigned differently. It wasn't, they didn't, and we are where we are. So where exactly are we?

Obama is the nominee barring a category 5 hurricane-like revelation. Hillary didn't quit, lost by just a little bit, and exits the race with an enhanced status in the party. She now has her own "brand" and fan base, exclusive of Bill - and it is quite broad. It will serve her well as she goes forward to campaign and fund-raise for congress critters who will repay her by supporting her legislative initiatives and, perhaps, supporting her in 2016 (or 2012 if the unthinkable happens in 2008).

I am one of those who would seek to combine the disparate coalitions of the two candidates on a unity ticket, but that decision belongs to Obama. Unifying the party is a joint responsibility with Obama expected to do the lion's share. Having campaigned as a unifier of Democrats and Republicans it would be a serious blow to his credibility if he failed to unite his own party. Hillary campaigned more as a "throw the bums out" candidate than a "kumbaya" candidate. Nevertheless I have every expectation that Hillary will fully immerse herself into the task of raising the Obama comfort level of her voters.

by STUBALL on Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 03:35:58 AM EST

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